San Diego State Aztecs: Unranked in the AP Poll, But Is It a Snub?
The Aztecs men's basketball team is notably absent from the first AP poll of the 2025-26 season, despite head coach Brian Dutcher's optimism. Dutcher believes in his team's potential, but the polls tell a different story. This isn't the first time the Aztecs have been overlooked, and it sparks a familiar debate.
But here's where it gets controversial: Are the Aztecs truly underrated, or is this a fair assessment?
Coach Dutcher's squad failed to crack the top 25 in the Associated Press preseason rankings and only reached as high as No. 30 in three prominent computer-based metrics. This is surprising, given the team's impressive roster, including eight returning players from an NCAA Tournament team, three experienced transfers, and two highly-rated freshmen. A lineup like this typically screams top 25 material.
The Aztecs are expected to dominate the Mountain West conference, yet they find themselves third among others receiving votes in the AP poll, effectively placing them 28th overall. The Union-Tribune, however, ranked them much higher at No. 20.
Computer models like Kenpom (No. 30), Evan Miyakawa's (No. 43), and Bart Torvik's (No. 45) also seem to undervalue the Aztecs. The only mid-major conference team ranked higher is Gonzaga, a perennial powerhouse. Dutcher acknowledges the challenge of breaking into the top 25, attributing it to the dominance of the major conferences.
A recurring theme: The Aztecs have a history of being underestimated in preseason polls, only to prove their worth later. In 2010-11, they started unranked, then soared to No. 4 before ending the season in the Sweet 16. In 2019-20, they received no preseason votes but finished at No. 6. And in 2022-23, they were No. 19 in the preseason and ended up as the national runner-up.
The computer metrics, however, present a conundrum. How do these models account for team chemistry and the impact of European pros without college stats? It's a complex question that may leave some scratching their heads.
And this is the part most people miss: The Aztecs will have their chance to prove the polls wrong early on. They face a challenging nonconference schedule, including a matchup with No. 12 UCLA in an exhibition game, followed by No. 7 Michigan, Oregon, and other top teams. Senior guard Reese Waters confidently asserts that the team's performance will speak for itself, regardless of rankings.
So, is this a snub or a fair assessment? The court will be the judge, and the Aztecs are ready to make their case. Will they once again defy the odds and rise above the rankings? Share your thoughts below!
