Kīlauea’s Fiery Calm: The Volcano is Catching Its Breath—But for How Long?
Kīlauea, one of the world’s most closely watched volcanoes, is momentarily holding its breath. The latest observations show that the summit eruption has entered a temporary pause—but don't be fooled. Scientists believe this calm will likely give way to new bursts of activity, with the next fiery episode expected toward the end of next week. So, is this just the volcano’s way of recharging for another spectacular outburst? Let’s break down what’s happening beneath the surface.
A Brief Pause Before the Next Eruption
After the conclusion of Episode 34 on October 1, the summit region of Kīlauea began to slowly inflate again, a sign that magma is building up underground. According to the U.S. Geological Survey’s Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO), this inflation pattern strongly suggests that the next eruption sequence—dubbed Episode 35—is likely to start between October 17 and 21.
Overnight, faint to moderate glows were visible from both the north and south vents within Halemaʻumaʻu crater. These glowing spots, along with a rhythmic tremor pattern detected by seismic instruments, indicate the presence of gas piston events—essentially mini bursts of pressurized gas pushing through the magma system. These signals hint that while surface activity may appear quiet, there’s plenty of movement happening below.
What Friday Morning’s Observations Revealed
The morning after the pause, scientists described the summit area as largely calm, with a thin vapor plume still venting from the craters. During the previous night, the two vents continued to emit weak to moderate levels of light, their brightness fluctuating in sync with those 10–15 minute tremor cycles. This pattern tells volcanologists that the gas inside both vents is still active and shifting.
Tiltmeter data further confirm that the volcano’s summit has resumed its inflation, with roughly 16 microradians of tilt recovery since the last eruption ended. Only a handful of small earthquakes were registered over the past 24 hours—mostly minor movements connected to this renewed pressure buildup.
A Look Back at Episode 34
The last eruption sequence, known as Episode 34, began subtly on September 28 at 9:47 p.m. HST. At first, a series of small gas piston bursts sent lava splattering just 10 feet (3 meters) into the air. These short, sporadic events continued for nearly two days, gradually building momentum. By September 30 at 11:43 p.m., the north vent erupted more steadily, marking the start of continuous lava overflow.
At 12:53 a.m. on October 1, scientists observed a significant shift as the volcano began to deflate—a classic sign that magma was being expelled to the surface. Lava fountains from the north vent surged to about 330 feet (100 meters) high, angled toward the northeast. Roughly an hour later, at 1:45 a.m., the south vent roared to life and quickly overshadowed its counterpart, sending lava jets soaring nearly 1,300 feet (400 meters) straight up.
For roughly six hours, both vents produced a dazzling, high-energy display before their vigor steadily waned. The lava cascades spread across much of the western Halemaʻumaʻu crater floor, forming broad, molten channels. The south vent ceased activity around 7:00 a.m., followed closely by the north vent at 7:03 a.m., officially closing Episode 34.
By the time the eruption stopped, the summit had undergone roughly 26 microradians of deflation, releasing an estimated 12 million cubic yards (9 million cubic meters) of lava—equivalent to about 2.5 billion gallons. The eruption rate peaked at a record-breaking 500 cubic yards per second, roughly double that of any previous event during this eruptive phase. That’s a staggering volume—enough to fill over 750 Olympic swimming pools every minute.
What’s Happening Now Beneath Kīlauea
Even though visible lava has paused for now, gas emissions remain elevated. These emissions, especially sulfur dioxide (SO₂), are typically measured between 1,200 and 1,500 tons per day during quiet periods, though the levels can fluctuate quickly. Each gas piston event releases strong bursts of SO₂, hinting that magma is still degassing deep within the volcano.
What This Could Mean for the Coming Week
All signs suggest Kīlauea is building toward its next eruption phase. The repeated inflation, gas bursts, and tremors are the volcano’s way of signaling that new magma is pushing its way upward. If the current pattern continues, late next week could bring another spectacular show of fountaining lava lighting up Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park once again.
But here’s where it gets controversial: some volcanologists argue that these short, high-energy eruptive pulses might indicate a fundamental change in how Kīlauea’s magma system releases pressure. Are we witnessing a shift toward more frequent but smaller outbursts rather than long, sustained eruptions? Others counter that these episodes are simply part of the volcano’s normal rhythm.
What do you think? Is Kīlauea entering a new eruptive pattern, or are we just seeing another chapter in its timeless cycle of rest and renewal? Share your thoughts—this debate is heating up as surely as the lava beneath the crater floor.
